• اقتصاد سیاسی انرژی به ویژه در حوزه خلیج فارس
Zahra Dirkvand; Younes Nademi; Reza Maaboudi
Abstract
Due to the heavy reliance on oil revenue in oil-exporting countries, fluctuations in oil prices can impact the social behavior of individuals within society. As a result, it appears that social capital, as a process of social institutions, is affected by oil rent. The purpose of this research is to investigate ...
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Due to the heavy reliance on oil revenue in oil-exporting countries, fluctuations in oil prices can impact the social behavior of individuals within society. As a result, it appears that social capital, as a process of social institutions, is affected by oil rent. The purpose of this research is to investigate the impact of oil rent on social capital in selected OPEC oil-exporting countries from 2009 to 2020 using the threshold panel method. The findings indicate that the threshold value for the ratio of oil rent to GDP is estimated at 3.4%. Prior to this threshold, the ratio of oil rent to GDP had a positive and significant effect on social capital; however, after surpassing this threshold, the ratio of oil rent had a negative and significant effect on social capital. Inflation also had a non-linear effect on social capital, while government size did not have a significant impact. Based on these results and the detrimental effects of high levels of oil rent on social capital, it is necessary to control methods that divert oil resources towards rent-seeking activities. One solution could be removing control over oil rent from governments and transferring it directly to citizens. Experience with government management of oil has shown that instead of optimal allocation, most funds have been spent destructively; therefore, mismanagement has turned this divine gift into a curse.
• مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حاملهای انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
Reza Maaboudi; Younes Nademi; Zeynab Dare Nazari
Abstract
Investigating the relationship between oil revenues and financialization in countries with abundant natural resources is particularly important. Considering the dependence of Iran's economy on oil rent, this paper examines the effect of oil revenues on financialization. The simultaneous equations system ...
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Investigating the relationship between oil revenues and financialization in countries with abundant natural resources is particularly important. Considering the dependence of Iran's economy on oil rent, this paper examines the effect of oil revenues on financialization. The simultaneous equations system approach and time series data for 1979 through 2018 were used to analyze the relationship between variables. The research findings show that oil revenues positively and significantly affect financialization. Also, economic growth, human capital, and institutional quality have a negative and significant impact on financialization. But, physical capital and inflation impress positive and significant effects on financialization. Therefore, oil revenues along with the low quality of institutions, extensive sanctions, and oil price fluctuations conduct in an increase in rents and corruption, weakening of property rights, distrust of government policies, and an increase in speculative incentives. A rise in speculative incentives leads to the deviation of capital from the real to the financial sector; finally, the capital transfer to the financial sector also directs to an increase in financialization.
Hadis Ahadi; Younes Nademi; Ramin Khochiany
Abstract
Today many developing countries face the problem of brain drain that could be affected by oil rents in oil-exporting countries. Natural resources aggravate rentier behavior and affect the welfare of elites and finally increase brain drain. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the nonlinear effects ...
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Today many developing countries face the problem of brain drain that could be affected by oil rents in oil-exporting countries. Natural resources aggravate rentier behavior and affect the welfare of elites and finally increase brain drain. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the nonlinear effects of oil rent on brain drain in oil-exporting countries (OPEC) during the period 2000-2016. For this purpose, the dynamic threshold panel method has been used. The results indicate the nonlinear effects of oil rents on brain drain. When the ratio of oil rents to gross domestic product is lower than 41.4%, the increase in oil rents has a positive significant impact on the brain drain in the OPEC countries and when the ratio of oil rents to gross domestic product greater than the threshold value, increasing oil rents will cause brain drain more than before.
Younes Nademi; Haniyeh Sedaghat Kalmarzi
Abstract
Oil price shocks are one of the most important variables affecting the performance of Iran's economy and the unemployment rate as one of the most important indicators of macroeconomic performance. The purpose of this study is to investigate the asymmetric effects of oil price shocks and the impact of ...
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Oil price shocks are one of the most important variables affecting the performance of Iran's economy and the unemployment rate as one of the most important indicators of macroeconomic performance. The purpose of this study is to investigate the asymmetric effects of oil price shocks and the impact of sanctions on the unemployment rate in Iran's economy. To this end, the effect of positive and negative oil price shocks and the intensity of sanctions on Iran's unemployment rate during the period 1980-2015 was investigated using Markov switching method. The results of this study show that the positive impact of oil prices has had a negative effect on unemployment and has led to a reduction in unemployment and, in contrast to the negative impact of oil prices, has had a positive and increasing effect on unemployment. Also, the results of the unemployment model estimation indicate that the increase in the intensity of sanctions has had an increasing impact on unemployment. Finally, Iran’s economy is on average 2.8 years in the high unemployment regime and 1.4 years in the low unemployment regime that indicates the persistence of high unemployment rate in Iran's economy
Mahmood Mohammadi Alamuti; mohammad reza haddadi; Younes Nademi
Abstract
Because of high reliance of Iranian economy to oil revenues, it is affected by the price volatility of the oil market. Therefore, the forecast of the oil price movement is very important at least in two aspects including determining the correct oil price in the government budget and also for controlling ...
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Because of high reliance of Iranian economy to oil revenues, it is affected by the price volatility of the oil market. Therefore, the forecast of the oil price movement is very important at least in two aspects including determining the correct oil price in the government budget and also for controlling the high price volatility for macroeconomic policy makers. Based on the importance of forecasting oil price movement, the purpose of this paper is to present an Early Warning System (EWS) for high oil price volatility in the OPEC crude oil market. This system, by forecasting the probability of staying in high volatility oil price in future periods, give a proper view of the trend of oil prices to policy makers. For this purpose, in the first step, by a Markov Switching GARCH model, the oil price trend and its volatility have been modeled and estimated during the period of 2010-2016. Then, using this model, the transition probability matrix, which involves the probability of staying in the high-volatility and low-volatility regimes, and the probability of switching between the regimes, has been obtained. Based on this matrix, the probability of being in a low-volatility and high-volatility crude oil price have been forecasted. so the policymakers and activists in the oil market can make better decisions to avoid of damaging effects of high oil price volatility
Younes Nademi; Hoda Zobeiri
Abstract
Human capital is one of the most important inputs in production function that this factor has a crucial role in economic development process. Human capital in oil-dependent countries such as Iran could be affected by oil revenues as well as the form of distribution of oil rent. These evidences accompanied ...
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Human capital is one of the most important inputs in production function that this factor has a crucial role in economic development process. Human capital in oil-dependent countries such as Iran could be affected by oil revenues as well as the form of distribution of oil rent. These evidences accompanied with contradictory and ambiguous impacts. The aim of this paper is to investigate the nonlinear impact of oil revenue on human capital in Iran during the period of 1975-2014. For this purpose, by using a threshold regression model, human capital has been modeled. The empirical results indicate that when the share of oil revenues in GDP is less than about 0.09, increasing share of oil revenues in GDP has a positive significant impact on human capital that the estimated coefficient is 20.21. But after the threshold level, increasing the share of oil revenue in GDP has a significant positive impact on human capital that the estimated coefficient is 5.37. Therefore, the intensity of oil revenue effect on human capital has been dramatically decreased in high oil revenue regime rather than the low oil revenue regime. Therefore, decreasing dependency to oil revenues increases human capital.
