تمرکز بر هریک از موارد فوق الذکر با توجه به جایگاه و نقش جمهوری اسلامی ایران
Abouzar Fattahizadeh; Shirin Andarkhord
Abstract
Renewable energies are gradually replacing fossil fuels as the primary sources of energy. The transition from non-renewable resources to renewable sources, such as solar, wind, geothermal, biomass, etc., has significantly transformed productive, commercial, and financial aspects of the international ...
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Renewable energies are gradually replacing fossil fuels as the primary sources of energy. The transition from non-renewable resources to renewable sources, such as solar, wind, geothermal, biomass, etc., has significantly transformed productive, commercial, and financial aspects of the international energy market. This transformation, in turn, has created new challenges and opportunities for energy security of states. Iran, as a major producer of fossil fuels and energy consumer, is also grappling with these challenges and opportunities. Here we aim to answer the question that what strategies and policies Iran has adopted in the field of renewable energies to ensure its future energy security? In other words, what role and position does Iran envisioned for renewable energies in its future energy security? Answering this question requires addressing several sub-questions. First, what is energy security and its components? Second, what opportunities and threats do renewable energies pose to the energy security of states? Third, what is the current status of Iran in terms of energy security indicators, and how does the shift in the energy market from fossil fuels to renewable energies affect Iran's energy security? Fourth, what strategies and policies has Iran specifically adopted in the field of renewable energies to prevent these threats and risks? Fifth, what are the shortcomings of these strategies and policies, and what solutions can be proposed to overcome them? Literature ReviewThe diversity in definitions of energy security has led scholars to propose various indicators for assessing energy security. In Table 1, we attempt to compile all the indicators proposed by researchers in this field. Table 1. Indicators of Energy SecurityResearch examplesIndicator Kruyt, Van Vuuren, de Vries & Groenenberg, 2009; Yao & Chang, 2014; Chuang & Ma, 2013; Fang, Shi &Yu, 2018; Lixia, 2021 Acceptability1Fang, Shi. &Yu, 2018; Kruyt, Van Vuuren, de Vries & Groenenberg, 2009Sustainability2Karatayev & Hall, 2020; Radovanović, Filipović & Pavlović, 2017Demand continuity3Radovanović, Filipović & Pavlović, 2017; Fu &et al, 2021Environmental sustainability4Paravantis, Kontoulis, Ballis, Tsirigotis & Dourmas, 2018; Kruyt , Van Vuuren, de Vries & Groenenberg, 2009Supply continuity5Kruyt , Van Vuuren, de Vries & Groenenberg, 2009; Erahman, Purwanto, Sudibandriyo & Hidayatno, 2016; Fang, Shi &Yu, 2018Accessibility6Azzuni &Breyer, 2018; Szulecki, 2018Democracy7Lee, Xing & Lee, 2022Distribution of incomes8Lin & Raza, 2020; Radovanović, Filipović & Pavlović, 2017; Kruyt, Van Vuuren, de Vries & Groenenberg, 2009Energy import dependency9Jewell, Cherp &Riahi, 2014Diversity of resources10Sovacool &Mukherjee, 2011; Kruyt, Van Vuuren, de Vries & Groenenberg, 2009; Martchamadol & Kumar, 2013Estimating resources and Reserve-to-production ratio11Kruyt, Van Vuuren, de Vries & Groenenberg, 2009; Shah, Zhou, Walasai &Mohsin, 2019; Novikau, 2019Political stability12Kruyt, Van Vuuren, de Vries & Groenenberg, 2009; Chuang & Ma, 2013; Radovanović, Filipović & Pavlović, 2017; Yao & Chang, 2014; Kruyt et al., 2009Affordability13 Martchamadol & Kumar, 2013; Dźwigoł, Dźwigoł-Barosz, Zhyvko, Miśkiewicz & Pushak, 2019Energy consumption intensity14 MethodologyIn response to the main research question and using rational-conceptual modeling method, we first identified fourteen indicators for assessing energy security. Then, we identified the threats and opportunities arising from the transition to renewable resources in each of these indicators. Next, with documentary and descriptive content analysis methods, we demonstrated which of these threats and opportunities Iran has faced or will face, and to which of them it has paid attention in its macro-policy-making and high-level documents. ResultsIn Table 2, we categorized the most important threats and opportunities affecting the stability or improvement of Iran's energy security.Table 2. Threats and opportunities of renewable resources for Iran's energy securityThreats and opportunitiesIndicator Change in public perception towards non-renewable resources and domestic and international public opinion pressuresAcceptability1Positive public perception of renewable resource exploitationLoss of oil and gas resources during production processDe-legitimization of governmental oil and gas derivatives consumption methodsUtilization of the country's capacity in wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear energy productionSustainability2Probable future reduction in oil and gas resourcesInvestment in export of renewable energyDemand continuity3Reducing dependency on international oil and gas demandAggravation of climate crises and increasing pollution of biochemical cycles due to fossil resource production and consumptionEnvironmental sustainability4Enhancement of environmental sustainability with renewable resourcesInternational sanctions on oil and gas technologies and renewable energy technologiesSupply continuity5International sanctions on oil and gas salesDevelopment of unconventional oil and gas resources exploitationGlobal prices increaseDecrease in job opportunities in oil and gas industriesNew job opportunities in renewable energy sectorIncreased public access to renewable resources to expand local developmentAccessibility6Rentier state and the need to reduce dependency on oil and gas revenuesDemocracy7Reduction in distribution of oil and gas incomesDistribution of incomes8Possibility of creating new public revenues through renewable energy sourcesIncrease in the role of other energy sources versus oil and gasEnergy import dependency9Diversity of resources10Relying solely on Estimating resources and reserves volumeEstimating resources and Reserve-to-production ratio11Social protests due to energy-related issuesPolitical stability12Increase in energy carrier pricesAffordability13Optimizing energy consumptionEnergy consumption intensity14 Examining high-level documents of Iran’s energy shows that the greatest attention has been paid to Affordability and Energy consumption intensity indicators, while the least attention has been given to Acceptability and political stability indicators, and to some extent, Supply continuity indicators. ConclusionIt seems that understanding the critical situation and deficiencies of Iran's energy security can only be achieved through recourse to the foundations of good governance, particularly good energy governance. Based on a general rule in good governance, such governance entails a tripartite relationship between the government, civil society and stakeholders. However, in high-level energy documents and general energy security policies, two other actors of good governance are absent. Acceptability, political stability, and to some extent, Supply continuity are indicators directly related to these other two kinds of actors.Acknowledgments The authors of this research are grateful to the referees for their valuable comments and suggestions.
