• مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حاملهای انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
Fariborz PARTOVIRAD; Teimor Mohammadi; abbas shkeri; morteza khorsandi
Abstract
Forecasting electricity demand is one of the most important issues of the electrical energy system. Considering the structural changes in electricity demand and the stylized facts of electricity consumption in different sectors of demand, forecasting the amount of electricity demand will clarify the ...
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Forecasting electricity demand is one of the most important issues of the electrical energy system. Considering the structural changes in electricity demand and the stylized facts of electricity consumption in different sectors of demand, forecasting the amount of electricity demand will clarify the prospects of changes in the Iran's electric energy system in the medium and long term. By using new approaches, this prediction will have higher reliability. In this research, using the state-space approach and combining it with Markov regime switching, the main sources of uncertainties were included in the model. By using the data of electric energy feed-in the system to supply electricity demand and the average real price of electricity and temperature and the number of customers in the ten-year period of 2013-2022, the parameters of the model were estimated based on the state-space approach and Markov regime switching. State-space approach in the form of time-varying parameters and Markov switching approach in the form of variance fluctuations were included in the model. The results showed that the model based on this integrated approach gives a more accurate prediction than the classical model of electricity demand. The standard error of the estimated equations is reduced to 0.1 (in the competing model, the standard error of the corresponding equation is 0.03, and in the integrated approach, it is 0.002 for peak and 0.004 off-peak periods). The sensitivity of electricity demand to the real price of electricity and temperature changes is decreasing and the demand for marginal costumer is increasing.
مطالعات اقتصادی مرتبط با حاملهای انرژی (فسیلی، تجدیدپذیر و برق)
fateme jahangard; Teymour Mohamadi; abbas shakeri; mahnoosh abdollah milani
Abstract
Effect of Oil Shocks on Stock Returns in Iran: Sing Restriction ApproachConsidering that the price of oil has changed a lot over the past decades and these changes can have a great impact on the financial markets of a country like Iran, the effect of oil shocks on the return of the Iranian stock market ...
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Effect of Oil Shocks on Stock Returns in Iran: Sing Restriction ApproachConsidering that the price of oil has changed a lot over the past decades and these changes can have a great impact on the financial markets of a country like Iran, the effect of oil shocks on the return of the Iranian stock market has been emphasized in this study. To measure the impact of oil shocks on financial market returns (in this study, stock market returns) in Iran, the sign-restricted VAR model has been used. The data of the study includes stock returns as a representative of Iran's financial market, Texas oil prices, and exchange rate uncertainty, and the period of the study covers the spring of 2017 to the spring of 2014. The results of the research show that the impact of the oil price shock on stock returns is significant and increasing, and then decreasing and lasting. The impact of exchange rate uncertainty on stock returns is also significant and increases and then decreases.Keywords: Oil Prcice, Exchange Rate Volatility, Stocke Return, Impuls ResponsJEL Classification: H54,G14,G21,R32
