سیاستگذاریهای اقتصادی و مالی در حوزههای فوقالذکر در سطوح ملی، منطقهای و جهانی
javad khajehtorab; sharareh majdzadeh tabatabaei; seyednematollah mosavi
Abstract
In the present study, the approach of a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium was used in order to simulate the economic and welfare effects of the allocation of oil revenues in the Iranian economy. Accordingly, changes in the production index of different economic sectors, changes in consumption ...
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In the present study, the approach of a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium was used in order to simulate the economic and welfare effects of the allocation of oil revenues in the Iranian economy. Accordingly, changes in the production index of different economic sectors, changes in consumption and price levels in the form of 4 scenarios of different combinations of depositing oil revenues to the National Development Fund of Iran, and using the social accounting matrix (SAM) related to the year 2011 were considered. The results showed that by using different scenarios of oil revenue allocation, the highest growth of production and consumption of the studied sectors compared to the basic scenario of the fourth scenario (save 20% of oil revenues in the country's foreign exchange fund and invest 30% of the fund's resources in the industry) will be. Meanwhile, the highest rate of price reduction in the production sector is related to the fact that 20% of oil revenues are saved in the country's foreign exchange fund and no amount has been invested in the economic sectors. In fact, the increase in production and boom is due to the increase in investment in the industrial sector of inflation and will lead to the growth of prices of manufactured products. Therefore, by allocating the fund's resources in the industrial sector, the goal of economic growth and increasing household welfare will be achieved. In fact, due to the strong links between the industrial sector and other sectors, including agriculture and services, by investing to improve the productivity of the industrial sector, all economic sectors have benefited from this issue and by increasing production while growing demand for investment and increasing household consumption will bring greater welfare to consumers.
arash fakhrizadeh; Hossein Tavakolian; Seyyed Ahmad Reza Jalali Naini
Abstract
The present article adopts the new approach to fiscal policy in the commodity (oil) exporting developing countries to avoid the "Dutch Disease" phenomenon and instead guide the economy toward "Dutch Vigor" through “sustainability and scaling up of public investment”. This approach results ...
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The present article adopts the new approach to fiscal policy in the commodity (oil) exporting developing countries to avoid the "Dutch Disease" phenomenon and instead guide the economy toward "Dutch Vigor" through “sustainability and scaling up of public investment”. This approach results in greater stability of the real exchange rate and economic growth. We cast this issue in the context of a multi-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) for the Iranian economy. Three fiscal rules are used to allocate oil revenues for saving, current government expenditures, and government investments. The allocation process is done in two stages. First, the share of oil revenues to a sovereign wealth fund (SWF) is determined. Second, the remainder is allocated between current and investment expenditures. We look for a smooth public investment path. By estimating the structural parameters of the model, the share of SWF, current, and investment expenditures that are consistent with the objectives of sustainability and higher investment scale can be measured. Comparison of the results of simulations of the model show that a smooth public investment path and saving in SWF combined with central bank sterilization of the money base, due to increases in the net foreign assets, not only contributes to sustainability of investment and reduced real exchange rate volatility, but also helps the monetary authority to pursue its objectives.
Hamed Sahebhonar; Kamran Nadri
Volume 3, Issue 9 , January 2014, , Pages 115-149
Abstract
The performance of nation’s economy in terms of realization of social justice can be addressed by studying the variation of quantitative indexes such as income distribution, poverty and social welfare. Several studies have been accomplished investigating the role of oil revenues in economic development ...
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The performance of nation’s economy in terms of realization of social justice can be addressed by studying the variation of quantitative indexes such as income distribution, poverty and social welfare. Several studies have been accomplished investigating the role of oil revenues in economic development of oil exporting countries. However the issue of income distribution and the process of the effect of oil revenues on it haven’t been adequately surveyed. There are several theories among the development economists saying the revenues of mineral industries such as oil and gas, cause the intensification of inequality in the economy. Using Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) approach and considering the variables of Gini index, inflation, GDP per capita without oil, share of government expenditure to GDP, proportion of consuming expenditure to construction expenditure of government, and the real per capita oil revenues, we addressed the relationship between oil revenues and the income distribution in Iran in the period of 1973-2010. Six different prior densities such as Minnesota and SSVS have been used to estimate the model coefficients and the impulse response functions and the variance decomposition have been computed. The results show that the increase of oil revenues has tended to increase of inequality in Iran. In addition, the increase of inflation, government expenditure, and the proportion of consuming expenditure to construction expenditure increase the inequality. But the increase of GDP per capita decreases the inequality.
