Abbas Kazemi Najafabadi; Alireza Ghafari; Ali Takroosta
Abstract
Signing Oil Contracts with international oil companies for upstream and downstream operations in Iran's oil industry has a long history. After the discovery of oil, the first international oil contract was signed in Iran. Different types of oil contracts have been used in Iran. In most cases, the adequacy ...
Read More
Signing Oil Contracts with international oil companies for upstream and downstream operations in Iran's oil industry has a long history. After the discovery of oil, the first international oil contract was signed in Iran. Different types of oil contracts have been used in Iran. In most cases, the adequacy of contracts in terms of economic benefits has raised questions and ambiguities for Iran. To investigate this topic, the gas buyback contracts are evaluated from an economic point of view. In order to assess the results more carefully, these contracts are compared with the Production Sharing Contracts. Phases 2 and 3, and also 4 and 5 of South Pars Gas Field have been selected for this paper. Since these projects have been awarded in the form of buy-back contract, in addition of defining different scenarios, the Production Sharing Contract for the project has been simulated. After finding the best scenario in terms of the production sharing contracts for both projects, we found that for phases 2 and 3 of the South Pars, the Production Sharing Contract and for phases 4 and 5, the buyback contract, are proved to be more favorable for Iran.
Younes Nademi; Haniyeh Sedaghat Kalmarzi
Abstract
Oil price shocks are one of the most important variables affecting the performance of Iran's economy and the unemployment rate as one of the most important indicators of macroeconomic performance. The purpose of this study is to investigate the asymmetric effects of oil price shocks and the impact of ...
Read More
Oil price shocks are one of the most important variables affecting the performance of Iran's economy and the unemployment rate as one of the most important indicators of macroeconomic performance. The purpose of this study is to investigate the asymmetric effects of oil price shocks and the impact of sanctions on the unemployment rate in Iran's economy. To this end, the effect of positive and negative oil price shocks and the intensity of sanctions on Iran's unemployment rate during the period 1980-2015 was investigated using Markov switching method. The results of this study show that the positive impact of oil prices has had a negative effect on unemployment and has led to a reduction in unemployment and, in contrast to the negative impact of oil prices, has had a positive and increasing effect on unemployment. Also, the results of the unemployment model estimation indicate that the increase in the intensity of sanctions has had an increasing impact on unemployment. Finally, Iran’s economy is on average 2.8 years in the high unemployment regime and 1.4 years in the low unemployment regime that indicates the persistence of high unemployment rate in Iran's economy
Musa Khoshkalam Khosroshahi
Volume 3, Issue 11 , July 2014, , Pages 159-194
Abstract
Since the consumption of gasoil and gasoline in the Iranian economy, especially in the transportation sector is high, It is essential to thought serious solutions to improve the efficiency of these two petroleum products in various sectors. Improve the efficiency of gasoline and gasoil coupled with a ...
Read More
Since the consumption of gasoil and gasoline in the Iranian economy, especially in the transportation sector is high, It is essential to thought serious solutions to improve the efficiency of these two petroleum products in various sectors. Improve the efficiency of gasoline and gasoil coupled with a problem called rebound effect (RE) Where the initial reduction in gasoline and gasoil consumption resulting in improved performance, partially neutralized. It is natural that neglecting the effect of the consumption of gasoline and gasoil would undermine the policy optimization. The purpose of this paper is to measuring the RE and changes in the transport sub-sector activity following a 10-percent improvement in efficiency of gasoline and gasoil. CGE model based on SAM1385 have been used to achieve the purposes of the paper. The results show that following a 10-percent improvement in efficiency of gasoline and gasoil, the maximum amount of RE for gasoline is in road transport sector (27.45 percent) and maximum amount of RE for gasoil is in road transport sector (25.21 percent). The average total RE of gasoline is equal 12.95% and for gasoil is equal 13.79%. It is noteworthy that following a 10-percent improvement in efficiency of gasoline and gasoil, rail transport sector has the greatest increase in activity level (13.4 percent).
Mehran Kianvand; Asadollah Farzinvash
Abstract
Iran Energy Exchange started to work on 03/09/2013. Electricity trading is carried out within the framework of forward contracts in this exchange. This paper examines the impact of trading in the electricity forward market on the volatility of electricity spot market. Using daily data of electricity ...
Read More
Iran Energy Exchange started to work on 03/09/2013. Electricity trading is carried out within the framework of forward contracts in this exchange. This paper examines the impact of trading in the electricity forward market on the volatility of electricity spot market. Using daily data of electricity market prices between 03/21/2011 to 06/21/2015, we employed GARCH technique to investigate the impact of forward trading on the volatility of the spot market in Iran. Our two main findings are as follows: (1) forward trading has led to increased volatility in Iran electricity spot market, (2) there is an increase in sensitivity to new information while sensitivity to historical information decreases after introduction of the electricity forward contracts.
Ali Taherifard; Roholla Mahdavi; Hamed sahebhonar; Mohamad Ali Khakpour; Java keypour
Abstract
The survey of Associated Petroleum Gas (APG) flaring illustrate that about 40 million cubic meter of APG have flared in oil operating regions at 1395 year. High volume of Associated Petroleum Gas (APG) flaring and problem of Notional Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) for execution of APG gathering plans has ...
Read More
The survey of Associated Petroleum Gas (APG) flaring illustrate that about 40 million cubic meter of APG have flared in oil operating regions at 1395 year. High volume of Associated Petroleum Gas (APG) flaring and problem of Notional Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) for execution of APG gathering plans has led to do policies such as auction of APG and transfer of NGL units to private sector by this company. Requisite for implementation of this policies that means present private sector in APG gathering plans is creation of given set up and framework in relations between NIOC and private sector. One of the cases that has important role in APG plans, is determined APG Pricing Model. So in this paper, meanwhile explained gas pricing models, a model was suggested for APG pricing. The main results of this study is pricing model for APG assuming sale to NGL unit such as NGL-3200 in which this model is based on fundamental principles such as type of use APG, gas quality, environmental issues, thermal value of gas and liquid content. Moreover, employing this model for feed pricing of NGL-3200 unit shows that minimum and maximum of APG price for this unit 5 and 8.2 cent per cubic meters Respectively. Also, sensitivity analysis presents that change of utilization rate, price of product from APG processing and capital cost can be effective on APG price
Timur Mohammadi; Hamid Nazeman; Mohsen Nasratian Nasab
Volume 2, Issue 5 , January 2013, , Pages 53-170
Abstract
The causal relation between energy consumption and economic growth, as an imperative issue in energy economics, has been a well-studied topic. Previous studies in Iran have ignored the nonlinear behavior which could be caused by structural breaks. In this study, both linear and nonlinear causality test ...
Read More
The causal relation between energy consumption and economic growth, as an imperative issue in energy economics, has been a well-studied topic. Previous studies in Iran have ignored the nonlinear behavior which could be caused by structural breaks. In this study, both linear and nonlinear causality test are applied to examine the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Iran. The nonlinear causality test, applied here, is based on the conception of correlation integral (an estimator of spatial probability across time). In this study, we find evidence on a unidirectional linear and nonlinear causality running from energy consumption to economic growth.
environmental pollution. On the basis of panel integration and co-integration tests, Stern (2004) and Perman and Stern (1999, 2003) have presented evidence and forcefully stated that the EKC hypothesis does not exist. In this paper by using fractional co-integration test, EKC is evaluated for 27 low middle income countries. The conclusions show according to classical co-integration test there is no co-integrated EKC based on HADRI statistics. Using fractional co-integration, evidences support a common EKC for countries: El Salvador, Nicaragua, Iran, Pakistan, Paraguay, Tunisia but our data does not give useful information about EKC existence.
fareast-font-family:Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";color:#333333;mso-no-proof:no'>FARIMA) were applied using the daily oil price in order to forecast oil prices. To compare the forecast accuracy of the model, the prediction error criteria was used. The results showed that the performance of FARIMA is much better than the other two models.
Teymoor Mohammadi; Azadeh Bordbar; Alireza Daghighi Asli
Volume 1, Issue 3 , July 2012, , Pages 107-129
Abstract
This study investigates interactions between economic growth and natural gas consumption, using times series data. The paper uses vector error correction technique and Johansen Co-integration test for the period 1353-1386. Co-integration test results indicate that there are two co-integrating ...
Read More
This study investigates interactions between economic growth and natural gas consumption, using times series data. The paper uses vector error correction technique and Johansen Co-integration test for the period 1353-1386. Co-integration test results indicate that there are two co-integrating vectors containing GDP and natural gas consumption. In order to identify the co-integrating vectors, restrictions based on fundamentals of economic theory are imposed. Each vector can be interpreted as follows: in cointegrating equation1, gas consumption, capital, research & development and labor force variables have positive and significant effects on GDP (endogenous growth function) in the long run, based on theoretical foundations of endogenous growth function is quite plausible. In cointegrating equation 2, GDP has positive and significant effect on gas consumption in the long run. Also, there are short-term dynamics in ECM equations in which speed of adjustment coefficients are offered. The results indicate that there is bidirectional causality between gas consumption and GDP in Iranian economy. So myiopic policies on one side without considering the other side is not expected to be effective. This means that policies designed for restraining gas consumption policy, ceteris paribus, may lead to decline in GDP.
Mohammad Alimoradi
Volume 2, Issue 8 , October 2013, , Pages 109-128
Abstract
One of the most important roles of a futures market is to provide the means of risk reduction. Optimal hedge strategy is determined via calculation of the hedge ratio. Estimation of hedge ratio and hedging effectiveness depend on correct specification of relation between spot and futures prices. Thus ...
Read More
One of the most important roles of a futures market is to provide the means of risk reduction. Optimal hedge strategy is determined via calculation of the hedge ratio. Estimation of hedge ratio and hedging effectiveness depend on correct specification of relation between spot and futures prices. Thus in this paper hedge ratio is estimated for the natural gas futures market by different methods e.g. OLS, VAR, VECM, and GARCH and their effectiveness is compared. In GARCH method, hedge ratio is time-varying so the time series of hedge ratio are estimated while the in other methods a fixed hedge ratio is estimated. Results show that GARCH hedge ratio has higher effectiveness rather than other methods and the effectiveness of other methods are ranked as: VECM, OLS and VAR respectively.
Ghahraman Abdoli; Pejman Amidi
Volume 1, Issue 4 , October 2012, , Pages 117-144
Abstract
This paper considers the impact of the establishment of a gas cartel on extraction of this exhaustible resource. A simple intertemporal extraction model suggests a linear extraction rule with slope term common when discount rates are homogenous and differences in pricing behavior and costs determine ...
Read More
This paper considers the impact of the establishment of a gas cartel on extraction of this exhaustible resource. A simple intertemporal extraction model suggests a linear extraction rule with slope term common when discount rates are homogenous and differences in pricing behavior and costs determine the intercept. As a result of comparing the amount of extraction in various market structures, we find out that when the market structure changes from competitive form to Stackelberg leader game, the amount of extraction decreases. Panel data regression exhibits a robust and stable linear extraction-reserves relationship and a significantly lower estimated slope within the countries with larger amounts of reserves. Moreover, this finding may be explained by the differences in discount rates.
SayeKamald Sadeghi; Akram Moradi; Seyab Mamipour
Volume 1, Issue 2 , April 2012, , Pages 127-148
Hossin Mohammadi; Amin Baratzadeh
Volume 2, Issue 7 , July 2013, , Pages 129-145
Abstract
Oil revenue can play an important role in the economy of Iran. Oil revenues are the main source of government expenditure and exports. On average about 60 percent of government revenue and about 80 percent of Iran’s export income comes from oil and gas. Because of the importance of oil income shocks ...
Read More
Oil revenue can play an important role in the economy of Iran. Oil revenues are the main source of government expenditure and exports. On average about 60 percent of government revenue and about 80 percent of Iran’s export income comes from oil and gas. Because of the importance of oil income shocks on macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, government expenditure, investment and liquidity, in this paper these effects have been investigated. We use quarterly data from central bank of the Islamic republic of Iran for the period of 1990-2010 and the method of vector auto regressive model (VAR) has been used. The results indicate that oil revenue shocks have major effect on these macroeconomic variables.
Fayrouz Falahi; Samad Hekmati Farid
Volume 2, Issue 6 , April 2013, , Pages 129-150
Abstract
In this paper we survey the main determinants of CO2 emission in the Iranian provinces. For this purpose first we provide per capita Co2 emission as a criterion of Environmental pollution and energy intensity in 28 provinces of Iran within 2003-2007, then the impact of population, urbanization, ...
Read More
In this paper we survey the main determinants of CO2 emission in the Iranian provinces. For this purpose first we provide per capita Co2 emission as a criterion of Environmental pollution and energy intensity in 28 provinces of Iran within 2003-2007, then the impact of population, urbanization, energy intensity and per capita income on the environmental degradation are investigated by panel data model. The results revealed that population; urbanization, energy intensity, and per capita income have positive and significant effect on co2 emission in the Iranian provinces.
Khalil Ghadimi; Teymour Mohamadi; Hamid Amadeh; Atefe Taklif
Abstract
Gas supply development and the upward trend of
Abstract
The upward trend of natural gas consumption as a result of gas supply development in recent years necessitates the need to study the resilience of the natural gas distribution system more than ever. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate ...
Read More
Gas supply development and the upward trend of
Abstract
The upward trend of natural gas consumption as a result of gas supply development in recent years necessitates the need to study the resilience of the natural gas distribution system more than ever. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of natural gas price liberalization on the resumption of the gas supply system in Iran. In order to measure the fluctuation of the natural gas distribution system, in the first stage, Lyapunov's view was calculated by using the Rosen-Einstein method, based on the consumption of natural gas in the household sector during the period from 2005 to 2018. In the next step, by using the Johansen-Uuselus Coincidence Method and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the relationship between the price of natural gas and the volatility of the Iranian gas distribution system has been investigated. According to the results of the model, the price of natural gas after the law enforcement of subsidies has led to a reduction in the resilience of the gas supply system; however, before implementing the targeted subsidy policy, the natural gas price has a positive resilience on gas distribution system fluctuations. This could be resulted from the real fall in natural gas prices due to inflation and a sharp increase in the exchange rate in the years after the targeted subsidy law came into force.
Jafar Ebadi; Amir Doudabi Nezhad
Volume 1, Issue 1 , January 2011, , Pages 133-179
Abstract
Almost in the entire history of 20th century, vertically integrated monopolistic companies have controlled the electricity industry. In this traditional method, these firms were the only service provider in their territory; including power generation, transition, distribution and retail. Necessity of ...
Read More
Almost in the entire history of 20th century, vertically integrated monopolistic companies have controlled the electricity industry. In this traditional method, these firms were the only service provider in their territory; including power generation, transition, distribution and retail. Necessity of economic efficiency deployment, resulted in structural reform in electricity industry that has created variety of subjects such as restructuring, unbundling, deregulation, reregulation and privatization. Electricity industry restructuring means breaking up vertical monopolistic control of governments on industry through unbundling into competitive and uncompetitive sectors. Electricity distribution sector essentially has natural monopoly characteristics therefore is not competitive and should work under regulation. The main objective of this research is to find the most efficient incentive regulation model for electricity distribution sector of Iran by which social welfare function may be maximized. Price and revenue cap models are the most prevalent incentive schemes that have been compared with each other. To design this model, cost function of 38 electricity distribution companies has been estimated and marginal cost of each company has been assumed as the first best price. Efficiency of these companies has been calculated by means of data envelop analysis method. Afterward 2 price regulation schemes has been modeled for years 1388 until 1390. Finally, residential electricity demand function has been estimated by means of autoregressive distributed lags method. Calculation of the difference between total welfare of each model with the first best price; indicates that without considering air pollution externalities, price cap scheme maximizes total welfare. However, considering the externalities, revenue cap model is found to have better effect on total welfare.
Timur Mohammadi; hameed nazeman; Younes khodaparast persarai
Volume 3, Issue 10 , April 2014, , Pages 151-178
Abstract
Economic growth is one of the main macroeconomic goals of most countries. It is therefore, of paramount importance to recognize the major factors that influence it. Financial development and trade openness are usually considered as two significant factors that affect economic growth in various ways. ...
Read More
Economic growth is one of the main macroeconomic goals of most countries. It is therefore, of paramount importance to recognize the major factors that influence it. Financial development and trade openness are usually considered as two significant factors that affect economic growth in various ways. Using a vector error correction model (VECM), this study investigates the causality relationship between financial development, trade openness and economic growth in two major oil producing countries , Iran and Norway. The study period for Iran is 1967-2009, and for Norway is 1967-2006.The ratio of liquidity to GDP and the ratio of bank credit to the private sector to GDP have been used as two financial development indices. The trade openness and economic growth have been illustrated using trade intensity index and the GDP per capita. Findings of the study indicate that financial development and trade openness are both significant cause of economic growth in Iran in the short run. There is also a bi-directional causality between both indicators of financial development and economic growth in the long run. In Norwegian economy it is indicated that there is a significant causal relationship between bank credit to the private sector and economic growth in the short-term, and there also is a bi-directional causality between bank credit to the private sector and trade intensity in Norway in the long- term. Therefore, it can be concluded that according to the findings of this study, practically there is the supply side view in Iran, while there is the demand side view in Norway.
sharareh majdzadeh tabatabaei; Ebrahim Hadian
Abstract
The main objectives of the present study were evaluation of the economic, welfare and environmental effects of applying Feed-in tariff policy in the Iranian Economy. In this regard, the E3 type of hybrid recursive dynamic model was studied. Therefore, the model is used for the period of 1390-1404, to ...
Read More
The main objectives of the present study were evaluation of the economic, welfare and environmental effects of applying Feed-in tariff policy in the Iranian Economy. In this regard, the E3 type of hybrid recursive dynamic model was studied. Therefore, the model is used for the period of 1390-1404, to evaluate the effects of FIT policy under two different scenarios, similar and different guaranteed purchase price, in order to achieve 10% share for renewable energy in total electricity production in 1404. The result shows that in in both cases, pollution and its social cost reduction has been mainly caused because of the reduction in the sectorial GDP. Therefore, a definitive statement about the selection of a proper policy depends on the environmental purposes of the country.
Younes Nademi; Hoda Zobeiri
Abstract
Human capital is one of the most important inputs in production function that this factor has a crucial role in economic development process. Human capital in oil-dependent countries such as Iran could be affected by oil revenues as well as the form of distribution of oil rent. These evidences accompanied ...
Read More
Human capital is one of the most important inputs in production function that this factor has a crucial role in economic development process. Human capital in oil-dependent countries such as Iran could be affected by oil revenues as well as the form of distribution of oil rent. These evidences accompanied with contradictory and ambiguous impacts. The aim of this paper is to investigate the nonlinear impact of oil revenue on human capital in Iran during the period of 1975-2014. For this purpose, by using a threshold regression model, human capital has been modeled. The empirical results indicate that when the share of oil revenues in GDP is less than about 0.09, increasing share of oil revenues in GDP has a positive significant impact on human capital that the estimated coefficient is 20.21. But after the threshold level, increasing the share of oil revenue in GDP has a significant positive impact on human capital that the estimated coefficient is 5.37. Therefore, the intensity of oil revenue effect on human capital has been dramatically decreased in high oil revenue regime rather than the low oil revenue regime. Therefore, decreasing dependency to oil revenues increases human capital.
vahid Mohamadi; Hajar Mozafari shamsi; Freydon Asadi
Abstract
Human development is one of the main aspects of development in each country in which different factors could influence this indicator. In this research, interrelationship between gross domestic product (GDP), energy consumption per capita and HDI and their control factors investigate by using simultaneous-equation ...
Read More
Human development is one of the main aspects of development in each country in which different factors could influence this indicator. In this research, interrelationship between gross domestic product (GDP), energy consumption per capita and HDI and their control factors investigate by using simultaneous-equation panel data models based on Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) for a panel of 12 MENA countries during 1997-2015. Findings of this study show that there is a mutual positive and significant relationship between GDP, energy consumption and HDI of the MENA countries. Labor force and investment volume both have positive and statistically significant impact on GDP. On the other hand, Openness of the economy has positive and CO_2 emission have negative relation with HDI of the MENA countries. Also, population and financial development variables have significant and negative relation with energy consumption
Abdolsadeh Neisy; Teymour Mohammadi; Sara Azimi; Akram Mohammadi
Abstract
Crude oil commercial stocks are one of the main components of the oil market, and its fluctuations are important in the analysis of the oil market. The purpose of this study is to investigate the unprecedented accumulation of crude oil commercial stocks according to structural shocks and convenience ...
Read More
Crude oil commercial stocks are one of the main components of the oil market, and its fluctuations are important in the analysis of the oil market. The purpose of this study is to investigate the unprecedented accumulation of crude oil commercial stocks according to structural shocks and convenience yield, since the onset of crude oil prices decline. In this study, the effect of structural shocks on fluctuations of crude oil commercial stocks was analyzed in the form of a structural vector auto regression model (SVAR) over the period from 2006 to 2016. Also, for the first time, convenience yield is calculated using the inverse problem method. This paper has two innovations. First, it is the first time that convenience yield is calculated in the oil market using the inverse problem method. Second, for the first time, the dynamics of crude oil commercial stocks are analyzed expanding Killian’s SVAR Model (2009).The results show that from late 2014 onwards, mostly crude oil supply shocks and crude oil inventory demand shocks have contributed to oil commercial accumulation. Also results show that WTI futures term structure (spread) has been in contango based on the negative net convenience yield since October 2014 and has led to accumulating more crude oil commercial stocks with speculative purposes.
seyed mehdi mousavian; Zahra Karimi Takanlu; seyed kamal sadeghi; Mohsen Pourebadollahan Covich
Abstract
The formulation of effective energy efficiency (reducing the energy intensity) policies requires study of the factors affecting energy intensity. The final consumption of energy in the manufacturing sector of Iran has grown significantly in recent years. The purpose of this study was to investigate the ...
Read More
The formulation of effective energy efficiency (reducing the energy intensity) policies requires study of the factors affecting energy intensity. The final consumption of energy in the manufacturing sector of Iran has grown significantly in recent years. The purpose of this study was to investigate the factors affecting the energy intensity in the manufacturing industries of Iran, especially the effect of government expenditures and foreign direct investment on the energy intensity in these industries and controlling the spillover effects between provinces using provincial panel data of Iran from 2000 to 2014. Based on Panel (Robust) LM, Wald and LR tests, Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) has been used to investigate the spillover impact effects of energy intensity. According to the results, energy prices, private ownership and government capital expenditures have a negative effect on energy intensity, while export-value added and capital-labor ratios have a positive impact on energy intensity. Foreign direct investment also did not have a significant effect on energy intensity. These results call for greater attention to the adoption of higher production technologies in investment and the role of the government in energy intensity changes. The results indicate possibility of using neighboring enrichment policies to increase energy efficiency.
Hossein Sadeghi; Samaneh Khaksar Astaneh
Volume 3, Issue 11 , July 2014, , Pages 159-195
Abstract
With regard to the ever-increasing need for energy in current societies to satisfy various requirements, scientists and researchers from different countries, such as Iran, have a basic approach in their agenda to achieve renewable energies. The scientists believe that with regard to the limited fossil ...
Read More
With regard to the ever-increasing need for energy in current societies to satisfy various requirements, scientists and researchers from different countries, such as Iran, have a basic approach in their agenda to achieve renewable energies. The scientists believe that with regard to the limited fossil fuels and their environmental pollutions, renewable and clean energies can be the first alternative to generate energy. Our country, Iran, has numerous capabilities in the field of generating new and renewable energies. This fact emphasizes the need for an optimum model to develop the use of renewable energies. In line with this objective the costfunction is chosenas the objective function. Given the potential and limits ofrenewable energy (resources Limited), Consumptionof electricpowerin each of16regions (apply Limited) confidencelimits of renewable energy (technical limitations), the model was designed and with use Robust optimization model was solved in LINGO software.The optimum of using renewable energies suggests the 36.71% generation of small hydropower energy, 18.22% wind energy, 17.19% biomass energy, 13.43% geothermal energy, 12.53% tidal energy, and 1% solar energy.
Mahmood Mohammadi Alamuti; mohammad reza haddadi; Younes Nademi
Abstract
Because of high reliance of Iranian economy to oil revenues, it is affected by the price volatility of the oil market. Therefore, the forecast of the oil price movement is very important at least in two aspects including determining the correct oil price in the government budget and also for controlling ...
Read More
Because of high reliance of Iranian economy to oil revenues, it is affected by the price volatility of the oil market. Therefore, the forecast of the oil price movement is very important at least in two aspects including determining the correct oil price in the government budget and also for controlling the high price volatility for macroeconomic policy makers. Based on the importance of forecasting oil price movement, the purpose of this paper is to present an Early Warning System (EWS) for high oil price volatility in the OPEC crude oil market. This system, by forecasting the probability of staying in high volatility oil price in future periods, give a proper view of the trend of oil prices to policy makers. For this purpose, in the first step, by a Markov Switching GARCH model, the oil price trend and its volatility have been modeled and estimated during the period of 2010-2016. Then, using this model, the transition probability matrix, which involves the probability of staying in the high-volatility and low-volatility regimes, and the probability of switching between the regimes, has been obtained. Based on this matrix, the probability of being in a low-volatility and high-volatility crude oil price have been forecasted. so the policymakers and activists in the oil market can make better decisions to avoid of damaging effects of high oil price volatility
Hossein Mehrabi boshr abadi; zeynolabedin Sadeghi; hamideh shojaadini
Abstract
The energy and economy interactions are so advanced that they are in today's economic literature, the amount of energy resources in countries, the amount of primary energy supply and consumption per capita and the per capita kilowatt-hours of electricity consumption have become one of the indicators ...
Read More
The energy and economy interactions are so advanced that they are in today's economic literature, the amount of energy resources in countries, the amount of primary energy supply and consumption per capita and the per capita kilowatt-hours of electricity consumption have become one of the indicators for comparing the level of development of countries. Fossil fuels cause social costs through environmental pollution and the phenomenon of global warming; the average solar radiation of Kerman daily has 5.2 kilowatt-hours per square meter per day, which has the potential to use solar energy in various industrial and household sectors. The purpose of this article is to assess the economic and environmental assessment of photovoltaic systems in providing electricity to a commercial tower with an average consumption of 32000 kilowatt-hours of electricity per day in Kerman using a life-cycle cost method. In the first scenario, all system costs are paid by the consumer, and in the second scenario, it is assumed that 50% of the initial investment cost was paid by the government, and the rest would be in the form of a loan at a rate of 2% with the repayment period of ten years old. The results show that the use of photovoltaic systems in order to produce electricity under the first scenario does not have economic justification, but with the support of the government, this scheme has economic justification.
سیاستگذاریهای اقتصادی و مالی در حوزههای فوقالذکر در سطوح ملی، منطقهای و جهانی
rezvan hemati; musa khoshkalam khosroshahi
Abstract
Environmental degradation is one of the most important concerns in developing countries. One of the most important indicators whose study helps to understand the extent of the world's support for improving the quality of the environment is the ecological footprint (EF). EF is an indicator that shows ...
Read More
Environmental degradation is one of the most important concerns in developing countries. One of the most important indicators whose study helps to understand the extent of the world's support for improving the quality of the environment is the ecological footprint (EF). EF is an indicator that shows the environmental constraints and the extent of human encroachment on these constraints. Numerous factors such as energy consumption, etc. are effective on the EF, but on the one hand due to the effective role of economic freedom and governance in the EF, and on the other hand, due to the lack of interaction between these two variables on the EF in any domestic studies, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the interaction of economic freedom and governance on the EF of selected developing countries during the period 1971-2017 and two econometric models (The first model: the effect of economic freedom and governance as independent variables on the EF and the second model: the interaction of economic freedom and governance on the EF) in the form of panel data method have been used. The results of the first model indicate that the effect of economic freedom and governance on the EF of selected developing countries are positive (and significant) and negative (and significant), respectively, but the results of the second model estimate indicate that the interaction of economic freedom and governance on the EF of selected developing countries is negative and significant.
Zohreh Salimian; fatemeh Bazzazan; Mirhossein Mousavi
Abstract
Energy-intensive industries in Iran are responsible for a significant share of energy consumption, especially oil products. Therefore, there is a major focus on promoting energy efficiency in such industries. Energy efficiency improvement results in rebound and backfire effects. In this paper we estimate ...
Read More
Energy-intensive industries in Iran are responsible for a significant share of energy consumption, especially oil products. Therefore, there is a major focus on promoting energy efficiency in such industries. Energy efficiency improvement results in rebound and backfire effects. In this paper we estimate the effects of fuel oil efficiency improvement in energy intensive industries based on intertemporal general equilibrium model. Simulation for long run period is done for two scenarios, including 3.1% efficiency improvement in energy intensive industries and all sectors of economy. Results show that the rebound effects in chemical industry, food and beverage, basic metal, paper, Rubber and plastic, non- metallic minerals, and wood industries leads to rebound effects in the first scenario. In the long-run, backfire effects are seen in the second scenario in which efficiency improvements for all sectors is considered. In addition, efficiency improvement will result in production cost decrease. Chemical and non- metallic mineral industries experiencing the most decreases of production cost around 1.1% and 0.7%, respectively.
